Last year I predicted that Zuma was not going anywhere.
He was not going to flee to the Dubai Mansion he is alleged to possess.
I based that prediction on the tribal nature of the guy.
At that time Zuma and the Guptas were grossly overrated.
It was assumed that all their actions were part of a grand plan to loot the country and escape the consequences.
Conventional wisdom at the time was that the Zuptas were going to use their vast looted wealth to install a puppet in the presidency.
It turned out that the Zuptas excelled more in greed than in hatching and implementing plans.
The plan to manipulate the ANC elective conference of December 2017 by buying votes for Dlamini Zuma was sabotaged by a failed attempt to steal money from police crime intelligence.
The Zuptas simply do not know when to stop stealing!
This was the first major indication that the Zuptas might not be having any decent plan to escape the consequences of their crimes.
But you underestimate the Zuptas at your peril!
It now appears that Ramaphosa himself was part of their plan B in case they could not install their number one puppet candidate in the presidency.
Ramaphosa was selected by Zuma to run as his deputy in the ANC elective conference of 2012.
Ramaphosa was and still is the poster boy of black empowerment by what came to be known pejoratively, by Zuma supporters, as White Monopoly Capital [WMC].
During his second term in office Zuma acquired the reputation of appointing carefully selected compromised people to strategic positions so as to give himself maximum leverage over them.
In retrospect, the most strategic position for which Zuma ever selected a candidate is the Deputy Presidency of both the ANC and the country.
Zuma and his gangster handlers would have weighed Ramaphosa's weaknesses and vulnerabilities to assess the potential of developing leverage over him.
Ramaphosa's rapid accumulation of wealth after his days as leader of the constituent assembly, during the mid 1990s, was a direct result of the BEE policy of empowering key members of the ANC.
It was to enrich a few strategically chosen ANC leaders who would then, as a quid pro quo, provide white business with access to the highest echelons of government in order to influence procurement.
The ANC, as an organization, benefited immensely from BEE in two ways:
Since the government is run by the ANC such contracts amounted to a serious conflict of interest with government doing business with itself.
This rot predates Zuma's presidency!
The ANC has never been a good role model to its followers with regard to ethical behaviour.
So Zuma inherited an ethically compromised organisation from Mbeki.
All he did was to outsource, to appropriate experts, the planning and supervision of the implementation of corrupt activities.
Naturally, the appropriate experts were criminal syndicates.
What must have been foreign to him was the crudeness of corruption schemes and their implementation...
South Africans, including myself, like to think that the ANC consists of two factions:
It is more accurate to say that we have crude looters with Zuma as their godfather and refined looters with Ramaphosa as their figurehead.
Ramaphosa has no strong principled argument against the crude looters.
This is why he is having difficulty keeping them at bay.
Ramaphosa is a compromised man which explains why Zuma head hunted him to be the deputy president of the ANC, in the first place, and subsequently appointed him deputy president of South Africa.
RamaZupta would be hard pressed to explain the ethical difference between his brand of corruption and that of the Zuptas.
At best RamaZupta will give the impression that his administration is prosecuting the looters.
In reality ZuptaPhosa will work out a plan to allow the looting chiefs to get away with their crimes.
The cabinet reshuffle which retains a number of major looters is no accident!
After all the looters have been Ramaphosa's cabinet colleagues and comrades for the past five years.
They say if you stay long enough in a barbershop you end up having a hair cut.
The master stroke of Jacob Zuma was to take an already compromised and prominent BEE beneficiary and darling of WMC and place him in a thoroughly corrupt environment to expose him to all sorts of temptations to render him safe for the looters.
From the start ZuptaPhosa was brought into the Zupta cabinet as part of their plan B.